Analysis of Unemployment in Indonesia: The Impact of Minimum Wage, Exports, Foreign Direct Investment, and Human Development Index from 1990-2023

Abstract

Unemployment is a socio-economic problem that can threaten the stability of the Indonesian economy. This study analyzes the effect of minimum wages, exports, foreign investment, and the human development index (HDI) on the unemployment raefrom 1990 to 2023. Using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multiple linear regression estimation method, to correct bias in the estimation, the Newey-West HAC standard errors approach is used. Minimum wages and foreign investment have a significant negative effect on the open unemployment rate, confirming that wage increases can boost productivity, foreign investment creates direct jobs through the construction of production facilities and economic multiplier effects in supporting sectors. The most surprising finding of the HDI which has a positive effect and exports which are proven to be insignificant on the unemployment rate, this shows that human capital formation is not in line with existing job opportunities due to rapid technological changes, as well as export-increasing policies which focus more on capital intensity. The study provides important implications for policymakers, maintaining and optimizing minimum wage increases and foreign investment in a measurable manner because they have proven effective in reducing unemployment rates. Reorienting export strategies policy from capital-intensive to labor-intensive, increasing the human development index adjusted to technological developments, especially in the business and industrial world.