The Effect of Government Expenditure, Population Growth, Unemployment Rate, Inflation, and Exports on Indonesia's Economic Growth during the Period 1991–2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61132/ijema.v3i3.1292Keywords:
Economic Growth, Government Expenditure, Inflation, Population Growth, Unemploy ment RateAbstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of government expenditure, population growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and exports on Indonesia's economic growth over the period 1991–2025, both partially and simultaneously. During this period, Indonesia's economic growth fluctuated sharply, including contractions during the 1997–1998 monetary crisis and the 2020 pandemic, raising questions about its determinants. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary annual time-series data from the World Bank spanning 35 years (1991–2025). The sample was selected using purposive sampling based on data availability and analyzed using multiple linear regression with EViews, preceded by stationarity tests, a likelihood ratio test, the Ramsey RESET test, and classical assumption tests. The results show that government expenditure, population growth, and the unemployment rate are redundant based on the likelihood ratio test (probabilities of 0.4617, 0.7392, and 0.7327, respectively, all > 0.05) and were therefore excluded from the final estimation model. Inflation has a negative and significant effect on economic growth (coefficient -0.346019; probability 0.0000), while exports have a positive and significant effect (coefficient 0.004104; probability 0.0004). Simultaneously, inflation and exports significantly affect economic growth (F-statistic 87.72993; probability 0.000000) with an Adjusted R² of 0.840163, indicating that the two variables jointly explain 84.02% of the variation in Indonesia's economic growth during the study period.
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