Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Impact of Interest Rate Changes on Foreign Direct Investment on the Iraqi Economy for the Period (2004-2023)

Abstract

The interest rate in the Iraqi economy represents an active and important element in the management of monetary policy in the Iraqi economy, as it is used by the monetary authority represented by the Central Bank of Iraq to influence the money supply, as well as the impact of this also by allocating the available resources for savings among foreign investments to achieve the central goal of the monetary authority of achieving stability in prices such as the interest rate and various prices and values of investments together and thus achieve balance at the economic and financial levels. This research analyzes the relationship between interest rate changes (IRC) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Iraqi economy during the period from (2004-2023). Multiple analytical tools were used, including descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, time series analysis, and prediction models using ARIMA and Prophet. The results showed an association between the two variables under consideration, with the ability of the ARIMA and Prophet models to provide accurate forecasts of future   FDI trends. A quantitative methodology that includes descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, time series models, and forecasting tools has been adopted to clarify the relationship between the two variables and draw conclusions that support economic decision-making.